Raising the Stakes on Fossil Fuel Elimination
COP29 comes at a time when current UN climate plans (NDCs) still put the world on a path toward 2.6 to 2.8°C of warming—well above the critical 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), avoiding a climate catastrophe requires cutting fossil fuel production by 55% by 2035. Yet, present pledges fall far short of this benchmark, with some of the wealthiest nations, such as the United States, Canada, Australia, Norway, and the UK, collectively responsible for over half of planned new fossil fuel projects.
As the host of COP29, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev has called fossil fuels a “gift from God,” highlighting the potential tension between national interests and global climate goals. However, other nations have already taken steps, with Colombia leading by halting new oil and gas exploration. If the world is to stay within the 1.5°C target, all countries must begin phasing out fossil fuel production, aligning future NDCs with commitments to reduce oil, gas, and coal project approvals. Whether COP29 can achieve robust emissions reduction strategies will largely hinge on overcoming entrenched opposition.
An Ambitious Climate Finance Goal
A central focus of the COP29 agenda is establishing a post-2025 climate finance goal that scales up support across three key areas: mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage. Many developing nations face a mounting climate debt crisis, constraining their ability to invest in crucial mitigation efforts without taking on unsustainable debt. To facilitate a just transition, activists and policymakers are calling for a commitment of trillions in annual funding, largely in the form of grants, ensuring that developing nations can transition to renewable energy without accruing further debt burdens.
To achieve this, negotiators must address fossil fuel subsidies, enforce transparency measures in climate finance, and adopt progressive policies. Success at COP29 will mean setting a comprehensive global finance target, extending financial assistance to communities facing the harshest climate impacts. As climate debt reaches record highs, the need for a robust, transparent finance framework is greater than ever.
Establishing a “Cover Decision” for COP29
Each COP summit typically concludes with a “cover decision,” a document outlining key resolutions often named after the host city. Azerbaijan has yet to indicate a commitment to draft this essential statement. However, a cover decision at COP29 could be pivotal, affirming the mandates from COP28 and urging nations to align their NDCs with a 1.5°C-compatible future. This decision could also ensure that gaps in current NDCs are addressed, empowering COP30 to demand revisions if current plans fail to meet agreed targets.
The Global Clean Power Alliance: A Step Toward Transition Coordination
One of the most anticipated developments at COP29 is the launch of the Global Clean Power Alliance, an initiative backed by the UK and several other nations aimed at streamlining the fragmented energy transition landscape. This Alliance aims to unify various energy initiatives, facilitating global coordination to support renewable energy deployment and emissions reduction goals.
For the Alliance to succeed, it must demonstrate a commitment to inclusivity by empowering Global South nations with meaningful leadership roles and addressing the inequities that have historically plagued global energy policy. To become a legitimate force for energy transition, the Alliance must prioritize phasing out fossil fuels in addition to scaling up renewables, ensuring it avoids the extractive practices typical of traditional energy industries.
Institutionalizing the Energy Transition at COP29
While COP28’s historic call for an energy transition was a milestone, it lacks an institutional anchor within the UN climate framework, raising concerns over how these commitments will be implemented. At COP29, negotiators must work to ensure the energy transition finds a formal home within the UN’s climate process, facilitating structured discussions on implementation, support, and accountability.
The Mitigation Work Programme—a central track within the UN framework—has yet to function as the effective forum it was intended to be, impeded by resistance from countries with vested interests in fossil fuels. Likewise, the Just Transition Work Programme has faced similar dilution as wealthier nations have resisted commitments to support transition efforts in developing countries. Brazil’s proposal to transform the Mitigation Work Programme into an action-oriented body is a promising start, but it will require staunch support from COP29 delegates to realize.
Pushing for True Leadership in the Global Energy Transition
The journey to a just, equitable energy transition demands a head-on confrontation with fossil fuel dependency, alongside the provision of substantial financing to make it achievable. At COP29, world leaders must back their promises with concrete, enforceable policies and adequate funding. The stakes have never been higher, as the global climate crisis reaches unprecedented urgency.