The global agricultural sector is facing an unprecedented crisis. Recent research from Aalto University has found that rising global temperatures are putting up to half of the world’s crops at risk, with severe implications for food security. As global temperatures rise beyond 1.5°C, the threat to crop diversity increases, jeopardizing both food availability and nutritional intake. This article explores how climate change is reshaping agricultural landscapes, what this means for global food supply chains, and how businesses can respond to ensure food security for the future.
The Dangers of Rising Temperatures
The effects of climate change on agriculture are already becoming apparent. As temperatures increase, the amount of viable cropland is shrinking, particularly in low-latitude regions. +Aalto University’s* research shows that crops such as rice, corn, and soybeans, which account for over two-thirds of the world’s food energy intake, are among the most vulnerable. These regions, already struggling with economic and food sufficiency challenges, could face devastating losses in crop yields as global temperatures exceed 3°C.
The loss of crop diversity is another significant consequence. Climate change is threatening the range of food crops available for cultivation, making it harder to maintain food security. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, nearly three-quarters of current crop production could be at risk, putting millions of lives in jeopardy.
Shifting Crops and Geographic Distribution
While low-latitude regions are facing the brunt of these changes, mid- and high-latitude areas may experience shifts in their agricultural zones. These regions might see a transition in the types of crops they can grow. For instance, temperate fruits like pears could become more common in previously cooler regions as temperatures rise. However, this shift comes with its own set of challenges, as increased climate volatility introduces new risks such as pests and unpredictable weather patterns that can damage crops.
The Amplification of Other Threats
As temperatures rise, the agricultural sector will also face increased risks from extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones. These events, already growing in frequency and intensity, disrupt crop production and exacerbate food insecurity. Rising temperatures also bring new pests and diseases that threaten crop yields, making the task of safeguarding food security even more complex.
Moreover, the models predicting the impact of these factors on food security remain uncertain. While current models provide a glimpse into the future, they fail to capture the full scope of potential disruptions, including the acceleration of weather extremes and pest-related crop failures.
Mitigating the Impact and Protecting Food Security
The good news is that there are actions businesses and governments can take to mitigate the effects of climate change on food security. Areas at risk, particularly in low-latitude regions, could increase crop yields with the right interventions. Access to modern farming techniques, fertilizers, irrigation systems, and better storage practices could improve yields significantly. However, these efforts are not a panacea.
Long-term food security will require global cooperation and a commitment to both mitigating climate change and adapting to its inevitable effects. Crop selection, novel breeding techniques, and improved farming practices must be integrated into climate adaptation strategies to ensure that food systems remain resilient in the face of ongoing climate challenges.
Conclusion
The threat posed by climate change to global food security is undeniable, but it is not insurmountable. Businesses, governments, and agricultural stakeholders must take immediate action to adapt and innovate in response to shifting crop patterns, increasing weather extremes, and the shrinking availability of arable land. The path forward involves a dual approach: mitigating the impacts of climate change while proactively developing adaptive solutions. By investing in sustainable practices and traceable supply chains, we can secure a future where food systems remain resilient, equitable, and sustainable for all.